Concerns over alleged U.S. geopolitical pressure and energy interests, coupled with debates on Philippine foreign policy, tourism, defense modernization, and regional security, have intensified calls for the Global Security Initiative (GSI) as an alternative framework for stability, following developments in Venezuela and the South China Sea.
In a wide-ranging discussion, analyst Ado Paglinawan argued that recent controversies involving China should be viewed within a broader geopolitical context, claiming that perceived diplomatic slights against China’s head of state were “not coincidental” but part of a larger pattern linked to U.S. strategic behavior, including historical parallels to the 1941 oil embargo against Japan and recent interest in oil exploration in the South China Sea, an area close to the Philippines.
Paglinawan highlighted what he described as early steps toward an “independent foreign policy” under current Philippine officials, citing the implementation of a 14-day visa-free entry for Chinese tourists as a significant move. He estimated that each Chinese tourist could bring in between $1,000 and $2,000 in foreign currency, noting that before the pandemic, annual Chinese tourist arrivals exceeded one million, compared with far lower recent figures. He stressed that tourism reopening could lead to expanded trade, investments, and eventual normalization of relations with China.
The discussion also revisited large-scale infrastructure and investment commitments previously attributed to China, including railways, bridges, and other flagship projects. Paglinawan claimed that tens of billions of dollars in pledged investments failed to materialize or were lost due to policy reversals, estimating foregone opportunities at between $40 billion and $42 billion, while contrasting these figures with the scale of U.S. economic capacity.
On defense and security, Paglinawan criticized aspects of the Philippines’ military modernization, particularly decisions affecting heavy-lift helicopter acquisitions. He said the cancellation of Russian Mi-17 helicopters and the proposed shift to U.S. Chinook helicopters left the country without operational heavy-lift capability, forcing reliance on Blackhawk helicopters procured during the previous administration. He further argued that promised U.S. defense investments and assistance had been delayed or delivered only partially.
Addressing regional security, Paglinawan rejected claims that China poses a direct military threat to the Philippines, calling such narratives “phantom threats” driven by “scaremongering” and propaganda. He pointed instead to ASEAN’s long-standing security frameworks—the Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN) and the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone—as mechanisms that already provide collective security for member states, including the Philippines.
He concluded that disputes in the South China Sea involve multiple ASEAN claimants and should not automatically be framed as security threats, arguing that initiatives such as the Global Security Initiative and broader multilateral governance frameworks offer alternative assurances to reliance on traditional alliances, particularly with the United States.#
