Vice President Sara Duterte has consolidated her position as the frontrunner in the 2028 presidential race, jumping to 48.4% in the latest Tangere survey following Senator Raffy Tufo’s withdrawal, while a simultaneous realignment among opposition voters has solidified former Vice President Leni Robredo in second place at 28.9%.
The non-commissioned survey, conducted from March 3-6, 2026, reveals a highly fluid political landscape just two weeks after Senator Tufo announced he would not seek higher office. His exit has triggered a significant redistribution of his supporter base, reshaping the contours of the presidential and vice-presidential races.
Duterte Widens Lead with Tufo’s Female Base
The primary beneficiary of Tufo’s departure is Vice President Duterte, who saw her preference rating climb five points from 43% to 48.4%. The survey indicates that approximately one-third of Tufo’s former supporters have shifted to Duterte, a movement driven largely by his female followers who now view her as the strongest alternative.
This surge has translated into noticeable gains for Duterte in key battlegrounds. She made significant inroads in the National Capital Region (NCR) and Northern Luzon, areas where Tufo previously held a competitive foothold. According to the survey’s geographic breakdown, Duterte now dominates in the Visayas with 61.9% and Mindanao with 64.2%, while maintaining a plurality in NCR at 46.7%.
Robredo Rebounds by Consolidating Opposition and Moderate Vote
Former Vice President Leni Robredo has also gained ground, climbing to 28.9% by successfully capturing a distinct segment of the electorate. Her post-Naga meeting with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on February 21 appears to have been a polarizing yet ultimately beneficial event for her campaign.
While the meeting caused a 20% attrition among her oldest, most hardline supporters—who shifted to Senator Risa Hontiveros or became undecided—it opened new avenues of support. Robredo captured 25% of former Tufo supporters, specifically from their shared home region of Southern Luzon and Bicol, demonstrating a powerful “regional homecoming” effect.
Most critically, the “statesman-like” nature of the meeting with President Marcos appealed to moderates, netting her 25% of previously undecided voters. This is reflected in her strong showing in Southern Luzon (43.3%), where she leads, and her competitive position in NCR (32.0%) and Northern Luzon (32.3%).
Remulla Emerges as a Dark Horse for Male Voters
While the top tier battles for the national electorate, Interior Secretary Jonvic Remulla has quietly become the preferred candidate for a specific and influential demographic: male voters from Luzon. The survey shows Remulla inheriting the support of former Tufo voters who are male, aged 35 and up, and based in Luzon.
This pivot is most concentrated in Central Luzon and CALABARZON, where Remulla’s long-standing regional influence as a former Cavite governor complements his national executive role. Analysts suggest these voters are seeking a “strongman” archetype that blends Tufo’s action-oriented brand with Remulla’s administrative experience.
VP Race Static as Tufo Brand Transfers to Erwin
In stark contrast to the presidential contest, the vice-presidential race has remained remarkably stable, with Senator Bong Go (26.7%) and Senator Bam Aquino (21.1%) maintaining their leads. Go continues to dominate in the Visayas and Mindanao, while Aquino holds steady as the top choice in Balance Luzon.
The most direct impact of Raffy Tufo’s decision is seen here, with Senator Erwin Tufo experiencing a surge to 14.4% by inheriting his brother’s base. The “Tufo” name has proven to be a powerful brand among its core demographic: male voters, aged 25 and above, primarily from Luzon, who view Erwin as the seamless successor to Raffy’s “Action/Justice” platform. This consolidation has come partly at the expense of Senator Robin Padilla, whose preference dropped to 8.8%.
Survey Methodology
The Tangere survey was conducted from March 3-6, 2026, using a mobile-based respondent application with 1,200 participants nationwide. It has a margin of error of ±2.77% at a 95% confidence level. The sample was stratified across the Philippines: 12% from NCR, 23% from Northern Luzon, 22% from Southern Luzon, 20% from the Visayas, and 23% from Mindanao.#
