Against a backdrop of a severe economic and financial crisis in the Philippines, analysts are calling for a strategic pivot to reengage with China, highlighting the potential benefits from Beijing’s upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2025-2030). This push comes as diplomatic gestures, such as the planned launch of e-visas for Chinese nationals, signal a potential thaw in bilateral relations.
The call was articulated in a recent forum hosted by the Asian Century Philippines Strategic Studies Institute Think Tank, featuring Herman Tiu Laurel, who presented a position paper titled “China’s 15-Year Plan and Philippine Response.”
Philippine Economic Crisis Demands Policy Shift
The forum painted a stark picture of the Philippine economy. Data presented shows the national debt reached a record high of ₱17.58 trillion as of July 2025, exacerbated by a government revenue slump and a deteriorating trade deficit. The country’s GDP per capita in Southeast Asia for 2024 was ranked seventh among the original ASEAN founders, at $4,130, trailing behind neighbors like Malaysia ($13,315), Thailand ($7,841), and Indonesia ($5,271).
The stock market performance in 2025 further underscores the distress. With an average daily trading value of just $0.10 billion, the Philippines lags significantly behind regional peers like Singapore ($1.02B), Thailand ($1.30B), and Vietnam ($1.05B).
Laurel criticized the current foreign policy, stating that the “Bongbong Marcos government clearly is not able yet to acknowledge that the Philippines needs to restore the Independent Foreign Policy,” distancing itself from US trade and geopolitical policies that are seen as offering no benefit and instead exploiting Philippine vulnerabilities.
China’s 15th Five-Year Plan: A Beacon of Global Growth
The presentation detailed China’s remarkable economic trajectory, guided by its Five-Year Plans. The just-concluded 14th Plan (2021-2025) saw China’s GDP surpass 130 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth of 5.5%, contributing 30% to global economic growth despite external trade wars.
The newly outlined 15th Five-Year Plan aims for:
- Technological Self-Reliance: Major advancements in AI, semiconductors, clean energy, aerospace, and biotechnology.
- High-Quality Development: A shift towards sustainable and innovation-driven growth.
- Social and Environmental Goals: Notable cultural progress, improved quality of life, and major strides in the “Beautiful China Initiative” for environmental sustainability.
- Increased Domestic Consumption: A target to raise median Chinese incomes to $12,000, creating a consumer market of hundreds of millions.
The plan is expected to continue being a primary engine for the global economy, offering “predictability and stability” and acting as a “low-cost, global public good” for emerging economies.
Areas for Potential Philippine-China Cooperation
Laurel identified several key sectors where the Philippines could immediately benefit from renewed cooperation with China:
- Agriculture: Collaboration on China’s breakthrough in saltwater-tolerant rice, which yields up to 4.6 tons per acre and could potentially feed hundreds of millions more people.
- Infrastructure: Resumption of stalled projects like the 1,100 km Mindanao Circumferential Railway, the PNR Long Haul South Luzon project, and the Clark-Subic Railway.
- Renewable Energy: Tapping into China’s leadership in solar, wind, and pioneering Small Modular Nuclear Power.
- Digital and ICT: Building on existing Memoranda of Understanding in technological areas.
- Tourism: The upcoming e-visa for Chinese nationals is a critical first step to spur an immediate infusion of tourism dollars, though it requires a broader restoration of “goodwill and mutual respect.”
Diplomatic Thaw and the Path Forward
A significant development highlighted was the Philippine Embassy in Beijing’s announcement to launch e-visas for Chinese nationals in November 2025. This move, along with initiatives to re-establish talks between the Chinese and Philippine Coast Guards, is seen as a positive signal from “conscientious government officials” who recognize the urgency of reviving economic ties.
The report concludes that leveraging the “China Boom” from its 15th Five-Year Plan is a crucial opportunity for the Philippines to address its economic crisis. By restoring an independent foreign policy and re-engaging with China, the country can access new avenues for growth, investment, and technological cooperation essential for its recovery and long-term development.#
