In a Pandesal Forum happened today, remarkable personalities, U.S. Army (ret.) and International Peace Bureau (IPB)Col. Ann Wright; Former DFA Undersecretary Ernie Abella; Partido Manggagawa Spokesperson Wilson Fortaleza; Asian Century PH President Herman Laurel; Asian Century PH VP for External Affairs Prof. Anna Malindog-Uy; and Foreign Policy Analyst Sass Rogando Sasot.are unanimously opposing Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) between United States and Philippines. They are alarmed with what is going on in the country and what President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. is dealing with.
𝐒𝐚𝐬𝐬 𝐑𝐨𝐠𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐨 𝐒𝐚𝐬𝐨𝐭 has been educated in the Philippines, Hong Kong, The Netherlands, and the United States. She graduated with a Combined Major in World Politics and Global Justice, magna cum laude, and a Master’s in International Relations at Leiden University. She has taught courses in International Relations, Comparative Politics, Policy Analysis, and International Diplomatic Negotiation Skills at Maastricht University.
Sassot in her statement goes:
𝐌𝐑 𝐏𝐑𝐄𝐒𝐈𝐃𝐄𝐍𝐓, 𝐏𝐀𝐖𝐍 𝐎𝐑 𝐒𝐎𝐕𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐈𝐆𝐍?
Bongbong Marcos
I am speaking today as a citizen of the Philippines. I am speaking today as a Filipino, whose identity is rooted in centuries of subjugation from the Kingdom of Spain, the United States of America, and Japan — an identity that flourished through the freedom fought by our ancestors against these colonisers. I am speaking today as an Asian, fully embracing our amazing pre-colonial history and the contribution of our diverse cultures and civilizations to humanity. I am speaking today as an International Relations scholar.
In the 2022 Presidential elections, I was known as an ardent supporter of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Just like in 2016, when I supported President Rodrigo Duterte, the primary reason why I supported President Marcos Jr is his foreign policy.
However, I do not support the recent foreign policy manoeuvre of President Marcos Jr. This is a reversal of what he promised during the 2022 Presidential One-on-One Interview with Boy Abunda on January 25, 2022. Mr Abunda asked him if he would invite the United States to get involved and help us in our dispute with China. President Marcos Jr, categorically said: “No, the problem is between China and us. If the Americans come in, it is bound to fail.”
On February 2, 2023, the Philippines and the United States entered into agreement to expand US access to military bases in our country under the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which was concluded in 2014 under President Benigno Aquino Jr.
Under Aquino’s EDCA, the US military was given access to five EDCA facilities. Now, under Marcos Jr, the US military was given access to four more.
The US State Department said that these four more bases “will allow more rapid support for humanitarian and climate-related disasters in the Philippines, and respond to other shared challenges.”
It sounds very benign. But who are they fooling?
The US-government funded 𝘗𝘶𝘣𝘭𝘪𝘤 𝘉𝘳𝘰𝘢𝘥𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘚𝘦𝘳𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦 (PBS) reported on February 2, 2023 that “this move is aimed at confronting China and its focus on Taiwan, which is only a few hundred miles from one of the new locations where U.S forces will likely operate” [1].
A joint report by a former Pentagon correspondent and a diplomatic correspondent wrote in the 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘕𝘦𝘸 𝘠𝘰𝘳𝘬 𝘛𝘪𝘮𝘦𝘴, “U.S. officials say they are preparing to surge forces in the event of conflict with China, including over Taiwan.”
If you are very observant, you will notice what is kept being repeated and emphasised: TAIWAN, confronting China, conflict with China.
And there’s a reason for that. Taiwan is in the middle of the defensive perimeter of the United States in the Pacific theatre, which runs from the Kuril Islands, to Japan, Philippines, all the way to the Malay Peninsula. To understand how important Taiwan is in the defensive perimeter of the United States, take a stick and cut its middle. The rest would fall.
To fully understand current US posturing in our region, one must read the 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟐 𝐍𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 (October 2022).[2]
In Part III, page 23, the 𝘕𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘦𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘨𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘜𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 clearly states that their global priority is to OUT-COMPETE CHINA and CONSTRAIN RUSSIA.
In Page 24 of the section on China, the 𝘕𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘦𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘨𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘜𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 gave an exact number of years: TEN.
Let me quote the exact passage:
“In the competition with the [People’s Republic of China], as in other arenas, it is clear that the next ten years will be the decisive decade. We stand now at the inflection point, where the choices we make and the priorities we pursue today will set us on a course that determines our competitive position long into the future.”
Taiwan is a US-priority: “They have an abiding interest in maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, which is critical to regional and global security and prosperity and a matter of international concern and attention.”
So what is being foreseen by the United States that could happen in the Taiwan Strait within ten years?
Changes in the status quo: either Mainland China gains full control of Taiwan OR Taiwan becomes independent. Either of these two, the US won’t accept.
Whatever that means, ask the United States or our foreign policy decision makers in this country. Ask President Marcos Jr to interpret it for us as he’s the Chief Architect of our Foreign Policy.
But let us put this in a larger context of the discussion going on in the national security community of the United States.
I will highlight several important ones:
- In October 2022, US State Department Secretary Anthony Blinken declared that China has made a decision to seize Taiwan on a “much faster timeline.”
- On February 2, during an event at Georgetown University, CIA Director William Burns said: “We know as a matter of intelligence [that Xi Jinping] has instructed the People’s Liberation Army to be ready by 2027 to conduct a successful invasion [of Taiwan].” [3]
- On January 31, a leaked memo of US Air Force General Mike Minihan to airmen under his command instructed them to prepare for war because “his guts” tell him they will fight in 2025.”
- On January 9, 2023, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a bi-partisan think-tank based in Washington D.C. released a report entitled: 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘍𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵 𝘉𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘕𝘦𝘹𝘵 𝘞𝘢𝘳: 𝘞𝘢𝘳𝘨𝘢𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢 𝘊𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘦 𝘐𝘯𝘷𝘢𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘧 𝘛𝘢𝘪𝘸𝘢𝘯. [4]
CSIS said: “What was once unthinkable—direct conflict between the United States and China—has now become a commonplace discussion in the national security community.”
Please understand what that means.
The CSIS project designed a war-game to model what would be the result of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026.
If the invasion happens in 2026, “China will fail to gain control of Taiwan. The United States and its allies will lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and tens of thousands of service members. Taiwan saw its economy devastated. Further, the high losses will damage the U.S. global position for many years. China will lose heavily, and might destabilize Chinese Communist Party rule.”
The CSIS wargame model then suggests that “victory is not enough” and that “the United States needs to strengthen deterrence immediately.”
To those who don’t understand, deterrence is to use the threat of force to discourage someone from doing something you don’t want to do. This is often done through a show of force.
In the CSIS war-game, one of the necessary conditions for China to lose is this:
“There is no ‘Ukraine model’ for Taiwan.” It means that if war breaks out, “if the United States decides to defend Taiwan, U.S. forces must quickly engage in direct combat.” In other words, US will need to send boots on the ground and not just send arms to Taiwan.
Let me digress a bit. Although I am speaking in this forum with the title “Averting a ‘Ukraine Scenario’ in the Philippines,” I don’t think this is appropriate to describe the danger we are facing. We face something more dangerous.
As I mentioned earlier, the key to success of the United States against China is to avert a Ukraine scenario in Taiwan by engaging in direct combat and not just be contented in sending weapons.
So I think you now understand why the United States wanted access to four more bases in our country — and one of them is close to Taiwan, in Cagayan.
Let me just further emphasise some important aspects of that wargame report:
One, the only combatants in the war-game model are Japan, Taiwan, United States versus China. North Korea doesn’t join the conflict.
And two, the most relevant to us: The Philippines is neutral and doesn’t allow basing our territory. They based this on Duterte’s foreign policy.
However, their alternative scenario is the Philippines allows base access in our territory, specially a site near to Taiwan.
This is what is happening NOW under the BBM Administration.
What does this mean to us?
Let me quote the answer of Zack Cooper of the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think tank in Washington D.C.
During his interview on 2 February 2023 with government-funded PBS, Zack Cooper was asked: “how will the U.S. use these military bases [in the Philippines] with the goal of confronting China’s influence in the region?”
Zack Cooper answered: “I think the objective here is to provide new assets where the United States can place its forces, so they are not so focused on just a few bases in East Asia.
Right now, the United States really uses Okinawa and Guam as its main operating locations, and being able to diversify away from just a couple of locations makes the targeting challenge much more difficult for China.”
Those are “new assets” FOR the United States that would give China a much more difficult “targeting challenge.”
What does that mean?
The article of the 𝘕𝘦𝘸 𝘠𝘰𝘳𝘬 𝘛𝘪𝘮𝘦𝘴 is so brutally honest: “In any war, operational and supply bases would be among the first targets an enemy would try to strike.”
Jacob Stokes, a senior fellow in the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Society and an adviser to Mr. Biden when he was vice president, explained this in clear terms:
“If China is going to try to take steps with its missile arsenal to take out locations where the U.S. projects forces, it now has more targets it would have to deal with.”
So crudely speaking, we are another TARGET for China in order to exhaust its missile arsenal.
So can President Marcos Jr tell us how many of us will die? How our economy would look like after the dust settled? How are we going to rebuild this republic?
Aren’t we supposed to be having a public debate whether this is the FUTURE we want to have for our country? Does President Marcos Jr have the guts to stand up to the United States of America and say “NO,” I will not allow the Philippines to be used in YOUR WAR? Shouldn’t Congress be intervening about this?
Let me end by highlighting the following numbers: 2025, 2026, 2027, within ten years. These are the supposed estimated timeframes China would decide to change the status quo by gaining full control of Taiwan.
These are also the time frames when the United States could still win against China, though with heavy losses. Longer than this, the higher the cost.
What does this remind you?
Doesn’t this evoke the moment when US President George W. Bush tried to convince Americans to gain domestic support for a preventive war against Iraq in 2003: “Facing clear evidence of peril, we cannot wait for the final proof – the smoking gun – that could come in the form of a mushroom cloud.”
Is the United States already convinced that it is facing a clear evidence of peril that China will gain full control of Taiwan by military force?
Is the United States still waiting for a final proof that China will really do it?
May history prove me wrong that US and China will go to war in the time frame U.S. personalities provided.
May history prove me wrong that we will be another battleground in a war not of our own making.
May history prove me wrong that we are once again trapped in the U.S. web of either you are with them or against them.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐡𝐨𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚 𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐛𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐩𝐚𝐰𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐛𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐬𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐧.
Heroes are often those who emerged triumphant after a tragedy. But the greater hero is the one who prevented a tragedy from happening in the first place. Mr President, be that hero for our country.
Full forum with Q&A: https://www.facebook.com/globaltalknewsradio/videos/5797059017007902
[1] https://www.pbs.org/…/u-s-boosts-military-presence-in…
[2] https://www.whitehouse.gov/…/Biden-Harris…
[3] https://www.csis.org/…/first-battle-next-war-wargaming…
Today, the Filipino people is at the brink of death. As Economist Prof. Butch Valdes always remind us that the war of today is not just guns, bombs but they will use nuclear weapons that will brought extinction of humanity. # (Cathy Cruz)
