DAVAO CITY – In a contentious briefing that blended geopolitical analysis with sharp criticism of the Philippine government, a representative from a low-profile think tank claimed that a recent naval incident near Scarborough Shoal was a result of a deliberate “manoeuvre kill” by the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), leading to a collision between two Chinese vessels.
Ado Paglinawan, representing the Asian Century Philippines Institute for Strategic Studies, delivered a wide-ranging address that accused the current administration of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. of jeopardizing national sovereignty and risking severe economic repercussions by aligning too closely with the United States against China.
The August 11 Incident: A Claim of “False Flag” Provocation
The core of the presentation focused on an incident dated August 11, 2025, involving the PCG ship BRP Suluan. The speaker alleged the vessel “trespassed” 1.5 nautical miles into the territorial sea of Scarborough Shoal (Bajo de Masinloc) and, in violation of the principle of “innocent passage,” executed a sudden U-turn maneuver.
This action, he claimed using an AI-generated animation based on satellite data, caused a Chinese Coast Guard corvette to collide with a accompanying People’s Liberation Army Navy destroyer. The speaker stated the incident allegedly resulted in the deaths of two Chinese mariners and significant damage to the vessels, though he noted that Chinese state media has not officially acknowledged the event.
He framed this as part of a long-standing “modus operandi” by the PCG to “provoke a false tag” and create incidents for propaganda purposes.
Sovereignty Dispute and “Stupid” Laws
The official directly challenged the Philippine claim over Scarborough Shoal, arguing that the country lacks documented proof of ownership and has never effectively occupied the feature. He criticized the new Philippine Maritime Zones Act as a “stupid law,” a characterization that drew a sharp rebuke from lawmakers during a recent congressional hearing.
He further argued that historical treaties, like the 1898 Treaty of Paris, do not include Scarborough Shoal within the Philippines’ treaty limits, and accused the government of having already lost significant maritime territories under previous administrations.
Warnings of “Price to Pay” and Economic Fallout
Linking the maritime dispute to broader geopolitical tensions, the speaker highlighted President Marcos’s recent comments suggesting the Philippines could not avoid involvement in a potential Taiwan conflict. He warned that China is likely to exact a “price” for Manila’s actions.
This price, he prognosticated, could range from targeted economic sanctions on Philippine agricultural exports like pineapples, bananas, and durian—citing the recent closure of a Del Monte facility as a precursor—to more severe actions. These could include China declaring an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the South China Sea or proceeding with planned installations on Scarborough Shoal.
Countering official Philippine objections to China’s announced plan to build a “nature reserve” on the shoal, the speaker defended the move as a service to “humankind” for marine research and conservation.
A Call for Strategic Reassessment
The briefing concluded with a stark assessment of the shifting global balance of power. The speaker pointed to advanced Chinese missile technology, which he claimed has led the U.S. to prioritize homeland defense over confronting China, potentially leaving the Philippines without its traditional ally’s full support.
The presentation served as a forceful plea for a strategic pivot, urging the public and officials to reassess the country’s foreign policy and avoid being drawn into a conflict that, in the speaker’s view, serves American interests at the direct expense of Philippine sovereignty and economic stability.
*The claims made in this report originate from a single source and have not been independently verified by this news organization. The Philippine government has previously denied responsibility for the August 11 incident and maintains its sovereign rights over the West Philippine Sea.#
