The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) officially announced the onset of La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific, raising the alarm for above-normal rainfall and heightened tropical cyclone activity in the coming months.
In a scientific bulletin, the state weather bureau confirmed that cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures, which began in August 2025, have persisted and intensified. By September 2025, these temperatures met the official La Niña threshold of -0.5°C sea surface temperature anomaly.
According to PAGASA, La Niña conditions are established when a one-month anomaly of -0.5°C or cooler is observed and is projected to persist over a three-month period. Climate models strongly suggest that these conditions will likely continue at least until the December-January-February (DJF) 2025-2026 season.
Impacts on Philippine Weather
The development signals a significant shift in the country’s weather patterns. PAGASA forecasts higher chances of above-normal rainfall from October 2025 to February 2026, with the eastern sections of the country expected to be most affected.
“This can be due to increased chance of tropical cyclone activity within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and combinations of rain-bearing weather systems,” PAGASA stated. The agency warned that this elevated rainfall “may cause floods, flashfloods and rain-induced landslides in susceptible areas.”
Call for Proactive Measures
PAGASA assured the public that it is continuously monitoring the country’s weather and climatic conditions. It strongly advised the public and all concerned government agencies to regularly monitor updates and relevant information from the official channels.
Proactive measures, such as reviewing disaster preparedness plans and heeding early warnings for evacuations, are highly recommended, especially for communities in flood-prone and landslide-susceptible areas.
For more information and detailed forecasts, the public may contact the PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS) at telephone number (02) 8284-0800 local 4920 and 4921 or through email at pagasa.climps@gmail.com.
